I think the way you describe having a certain threshold is just another example of a Bayesian filter.
I wonder if someone could write a library to factor a bunch of these factors in; geographic location[1], user agent, operating system. Maybe you could even factor in login time if you deemed it of statistical relevance.
The key point is it needs to be self learning. In my case, I change geographic location because I could be coming from home (Canada) or either of the two VPN networks I login from (California and Sweden). I think gmail understands that these three locations "fit my profile", but coming from other locations, and I have been required to re-authenticate.
[1] You'll notice I didn't say IP address, but that could be a actor as well. It's easy enough to convert an IP address to Latitude/Longitude with maxmind Geoip.
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